Housing forecast dependent on state leadership, oil and water
By Alexandria Randolph
The growth of the local Highland Lakes housing industry for the coming year will be dependent on newly-elected Texas leadership, the fate of the oil boom and the availability of natural resources, but things are looking good, reported national and state home building officials to area builders gathered Wednesday, Jan. 8, for the Hill Country Builders Association's Annual Housing Forecast.
Giving members an overview of statistics and recent factors in the housing industry were National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist Dr. David Crowe and Texas Association of Builders Executive Director Scott Norman.
“There are 184,073 people living in the HCBA (Hill Country Builders Association) area. You have a home ownership rate of 72 percent. That’s high relative to the state and the rest of the country,” Crowe said, and added that since the fallout in 2008, “it’s been an irregular recovery. We’ve gained back that regularity.”
Crowe said citizens have regained the equity in their homes and the job market is stabilizing, leading to higher interest rates.
“If you have a strong recovery, there are a lot more businesses out there trying to get loans. More demand means you raise the interest on borrowing,” he said.
Crowe followed that employment rates and the construction of single-family homes has a direct correlation. He added that the recovery led to an 18 percent increase in home affordability, which will decline slightly now that interest rates are higher.
An increase in construction of single-family homes has already led to an 80 percent increase in the cost of materials and will cause the remodeling industry to fall back.
Even with the foreseen growth, “single-family housing is the weaker part of our industry,” Crowe said. “I think we have a good future in store partly because last year wasn’t so great. There’s a lot of pent up demand out there and I think that’s what we’ll start seeing.”
For more, see Friday's Highlander.
